Tag Archives: Intelligence

2015 Computer and Internet Collection part 1 [PDF]-MiMESiS

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2015 Computer and Internet Collection part 1 [PDF]-MiMESiS
English | PDF | Ebooks Collection | All In One | 1.552 GB

2015 Computer and Internet Collection part 1 [PDF]-MiMESiS
Ebooks included

Addison-Wesley Ethics for the Information Age 6th (2015).pdf
Addison-Wesley Fundamentals of Web Development (2014).pdf
Apress Advanced Actionscript 3, Design Patterns 2nd (2015).pdf
Apress Beginning Apache Cassandra Development (2014).pdf
Apress Beginning Java 8 Games Development (2014).pdf
Apress Beginning Node,js (2014).pdf
Apress Beginning Photo Retouching and Restoration Using GIMP (2014).pdf
Apress Beginning RPG Maker VX Ace (2014).pdf
Apress Beginning SQL Server for Developers 4th (2015).pdf
Apress Beginning iPhone Development, Exploring the iOS SDK 7th (2014).pdf
Apress Big Data Made Easy, A Working Guide to the Complete Hadoop Toolset (2015).pdf
Apress Data Scientists at Work (2014).pdf
Apress Database Systems, A Pragmatic Approach (2014).pdf
Apress Disruption by Design, How to Create Products that Disrupt and then Dominate Markets (2014).pdf
Apress Everyday Computing with Windows 8.1 (2015).pdf
Apress Exporting Essentials, Selling Products and Services to the World Successfully (2014).pdf
Apress Express.js Deep API Reference (2014).pdf
Apress Financial Ratios for Executives, How to Assess Company Strength Fix Problems and Make Better Decisions (2015).pdf
Apress Learn SpriteBuilder for iOS Game Development (2014).pdf
Apress Learn iOS 8 App Development 2nd (2014).pdf
Apress MATLAB Graphical Programming (2014).pdf
Apress PHP Solutions, Dynamic Web Design Made Easy 3rd (2014).pdf
Apress Planning and Designing Effective Metrics (2015).pdf
Apress Practical Hadoop Security (2014).pdf
Apress Practical Linux Infrastructure (2015).pdf
Apress Practical Neo4j (2014).pdf
Apress Practical Salesforce.com Development without Code, Customizing Salesforce on the Force.com Platform (2015).pdf
Apress Pro Exchange 2013 SP1 PowerShell Administration, For Exchange On-Premises and Office 365 (2014).pdf
Apress Pro Express.js (2014).pdf
Apress Pro Office for iPad, How to Be Productive with Office for iPad (2014).pdf
Apress Pro Python 2nd (2014).pdf
Apress Pro iOS Persistence, Using Core Data (2014).pdf
Apress R Recipes, A Problem-Solution Approach (2014).pdf
Apress Ruby Quick Syntax Reference (2014).pdf
Apress SQL Server Integration Service Design Patterns 2nd (2014).pdf
Apress SQL Server Integration Services Design Patterns 2nd (2014).pdf
Apress Software Engineering, A Methodical Approach (2014).pdf
Apress Success in Programming, How to Gain Recognition Power and Influence through Personal Branding (2014).pdf
Apress Swift for Absolute Beginners (2015).pdf
Apress Swing for Jython, Graphical Jython UI and Scripts Development using Java Swing and WebSphere Application Server (2015).pdf
Apress Tax Insight, For Tax Year 2014 and Beyond 3rd (2015).pdf
Apress The Basics of Financial Modeling (2015).pdf
Apress The Community Manager's Playbook, How to Build Brand Awareness and Customer Engagement (2015).pdf
Apress The Manager's Guide to Web Application Security, A Concise Guide to the Weaker Side of the Web (2014).pdf
Apress The Profitable Supply Chain, A Practitioner's Guide (2015).pdf
Apress Transitioning to Swift (2014).pdf
Apress Trust-Based Selling, Finding and Keeping Customers for Life (2015).pdf
Apress University Startups and Spin-Offs, Guide for Entrepreneurs in Academia (2015).pdf
Apress Valuing and Selling Your Business, A Quick Guide to Cashing In (2014).pdf
Apress Visio Services Quick Guide, Using Visio with Sharepoint 2013 and Office 365 (2015).pdf
Apress Web Programming with Dart (2015).pdf
Apress Web Standards, Mastering HTML5 CSS3 and XML 2nd (2014).pdf
Butterworth-Heinemann Surveillance and Threat Detection, Prevention versus Mitigation (2014).pdf
Imperial College Press Computational Intelligence Applications in Smart Grids (2015).pdf
No Starch Press Android Security Internals, An In-Depth Guide to Android's Security Architecture (2015).pdf
No Starch Press Bitcoin for the Befuddled (2015).pdf
No Starch Press Black Hat Python, Python Programming for Hackers and Pentesters (2014).pdf
No Starch Press Build Your Own Website, A Comic Guide to HTML CSS and WordPress (2014).pdf
No Starch Press Eloquent javascript, A Modern Introduction to Programming 2d (2015).pdf
No Starch Press How Linux Works, What Every Superuser Should Know 2nd (2015).pdf
No Starch Press javascript for Kids, A Playful Introduction to Programming (2015).pdf
No Starch Press Lauren Ipsum, A Story about Computer Science and Other Improbable Things (2015).pdf
No Starch Press Rails Crash Course, A No-Nonsense Guide to Rails Development (2015).pdf
No Starch Press Ruby Wizardry, An Introduction to Programming for Kids (2015).pdf
No Starch Press The Book of CSS3, A Developer's Guide to the Future of Web Design 2nd (2015).pdf
No Starch Press The Book of PF, A No-Nonsense Guide to the OpenBSD Firewall 3rd (2015).pdf
No Starch Press The LEGO MINDSTORMS EV3 Idea Book, 181 Simple Machines and Clever Contraptions (2015).pdf
OReilly App Inventor 2, Create Your Own Android Apps (2015).pdf
OReilly Designing for Performance, Weighing Aesthetics and Speed (2015).pdf
OReilly Introducing iOS 8 (2015).pdf
OReilly Learning Agile (2015).pdf
OReilly Learning PHP MySQL and javascript, With jQuery CSS and HTML5 4th (2015).pdf
OReilly Mastering Bitcoin, Unlocking Digital Crypto-Currencies (2015).pdf
OReilly Mobile and Web Messaging (2014).pdf
OReilly Python for Finance, Analyze Big Financial Data (2014).pdf
OReilly Python for Finance, Analyze Big Financial Data (2015).pdf
OReilly Thoughtful Machine Learning (2015).pdf
OReilly iOS 8 Swift Programming Cookbook (2015).pdf
OReilly iPhone, The Missing Manual 8th (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Blender 3D Basics, Beginner's Guide 2nd (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Building Mapping Applications with QGIS (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Building Web Applications with ArcGIS (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Cassandra High Availability (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing CentOS System Administration Essentials (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Flask Framework Cookbook (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing HBase Essentials (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing IPython Notebook Essentials (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Java EE 7 Development with WildFly 2nd (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing javascript Security (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Learning Alfresco Web Scripts (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Learning AngularJS Animations (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Learning AngularJS for .NET Developers (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Learning Informatica PowerCenter 9.x (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Learning Neo4j (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Mastering javascript Design Patterns (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing OpenVZ Essentials (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Penetration Testing with Perl (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Puppet Essentials (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Unity Game Development Blueprints (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Web App Testing Using Knockout.JS (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Web Application Development with Yii 2 and PHP 3rd (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing WebRTC Integrator's Guide (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing Yii Project Blueprints (2014).pdf
Packt Publishing scikit-learn Cookbook (2014).pdf
Pearson Education Publishing Logic and Computer Design Fundamentals 4th International Edition (2014).pdf
Pragmatic Bookshelf Publishing Metaprogramming Ruby 2, Program Like the Ruby Pros (2014).pdf
Springer Publishing Agile, The Good the Hype and the Ugly (2014).pdf
Springer Publishing Artificial General Intelligence, 7th International Conference AGI 2014 Quebec City Canada (2014).pdf
Springer Publishing Audio Watermark, A Comprehensive Foundation Using MATLAB (2015).pdf
Sybex CWNA, Certified Wireless Network Administrator Official Study Guide Exam CWNA-106 4th (2014).pdf
Wiley About Face, The Essentials of Interaction Design 4th (2014).pdf
Wiley Architecting the Cloud, Design Decision for Cloud Computing Service Models SaaS PaaS and IaaS (2014).pdf
Wiley Google BigQuery Analytics (2014).pdf
Wiley Java All-in-One for Dummies 4th (2014).pdf
Wiley javascript and JQuery, Interactive Front-End Web Development (2014).pdf
Wiley Lean Auditing, Driving Added Value and Efficiency in Internal Audit (2015).pdf
Wiley The Art of Memory Forensics, Detecting Malware and Threats in Windows Linux and Mac Memory (2014).pdf
Wiley iPad mini for Dummies 3rd (2015).pdf
Wrox Press Professional WordPress, Design and Development 3rd (2015).pdf
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What’s Good About Anger? Putting Your Anger to Work for Good, 2nd edition

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What's Good About Anger? Putting Your Anger to Work for Good, 2nd edition By Ted Griffin, Lynette J. Hoy
2006 | 160 Pages | ISBN: 097175991X | EPUB + MOBI | 1 MB

What’s Good About Anger? Putting Your Anger to Work for Good, 2nd edition
Most people believe that anger is a negative emotion from which no good can come. Many people think that anger should not be expressed and that such feelings are wrong. This book explores the emotion of anger and how anger-which is a part of the human experience-can be put to work for good. This third edition integrates emotional intelligence skills with the best anger management strategies and still includes spiritual insights.
Co-authors Lynette Hoy and Ted Griffin present a fresh approach to managing anger and the key role that emotional intelligence plays – putting anger to work for good! Learn about how anger can be turned into assertiveness, problem-solving, empathy, conflict management and forgiveness. Applying the cognitive, behavioral and stress management skills from the What's Good About Anger? book and workbooks can reduce your levels of anger, and help you learn effective coping behaviors to stop escalation and to resolve conflicts. Logging anger, triggering situations and applying new skills will help you more effectively control unhealthy anger responses.
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The Creating Brain: The Neuroscience of Genius

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The Creating Brain: The Neuroscience of Genius by Nancy C. Andreasen
English | 2005-11-30 | ISBN: 1932594078 | PDF | 197 pages | 1,1 MB

The Creating Brain: The Neuroscience of Genius
Michelangelo was raised in a rustic village by a family of modest means. Shakespeare's father was a middle-class businessman. Abraham Lincoln came from a family of itinerant farmers. Yet all these men broke free from their limited circumstances and achieved brilliant careers as creative artists and leaders. How such extraordinary creativity develops in the human brain is the subject of renowned psychiatrist Nancy Andreasen's The Creating Brain.
Andreasen explains here how the brain produces creative breakthroughs in art, literature, and science, revealing that creativity is not the same thing as intelligence. She scrutinizes the complex factors involved in the development of creativity, including the role of patrons and mentors, "non-standard" educations, and the possession of an "omnivorous" vision. A fascinating interview with acclaimed playwright Neil Simon sheds further light on the creative process.The relationship between genius and insanity also plays an important role in Andreasen's examination. Drawing on her studies of writers in the Iowa Writers' Workshop and other scientific evidence, Andreasen asserts that while creativity may sometimes be linked to mental disorders and may be partially due to familial/genetic factors, neither is inevitable nor needed for creativity to flourish.
Scientist's increasing understanding of the brain's plasticity suggests even more possibilities for nurturing the creative drive, and Andreasen looks ahead to exciting implications for child-rearing and education. The Creating Brain presents an inspiring vision for a future where everyone-not just artists or writers-can fulfill their creative capacity.
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Sabotage: America’s Enemies Within the CIA

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Sabotage: America's Enemies Within the CIA By Rowan Scarborough
2007 | 229 Pages | ISBN: 1596985100 | PDF | 3 MB

Sabotage: America’s Enemies Within the CIA
How Bush-hating CIA Bureaucrats Are Sabotaging the War on Terror Since the attacks on September 11, 2001, intelligence collection has become the number-one weapon in the effort to defeat al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. A Description penetrated is an attack stopped. And to the outside observer, the CIA has performed well as a key partner in the Bush administration's War on Terror. But as Rowan Scarborough reveals in this groundbreaking new book, significant elements within the CIA are undermining both the president and national security through leaks, false allegations, and outright sabotage. Using his first-rate sources in all levels of national security–from field officers to high-ranking analysts to former intelligence heads–Scarborough paints a disturbing picture of partisan politics endangering the success of our campaigns abroad and the very lives of our soldiers and agents. In Sabotage, you'll learn: * How CIA analysts repeatedly leak details about classified intelligence programs with the dual intent of ending them and damaging the president * How, on at least eight occasions, intelligence officials have made serious allegations of wrongdoing against the president's men–which turned out to be false * Why, contrary to popular belief, the CIA has become predominantly liberal * How a CIA turf battle prevented special operators from pursuing and capturing a notorious Taliban leader * How current and former CIA officers fueled conspiracy theories that President Bush orchestrated the 9/11 attacks on America * How a CIA leak to the New York Times deprived the U.S. of critical information in the War on Terror * How press leaks by the CIA have damaged relations with our foreign allies in the War on Terror * How a CIA analyst worked with Democrats to sabotage the nomination of John Bolton to the UN * How Clinton's downsizing of the CIA led to the closing of stations in scores of jihadist breeding grounds–including Hamburg, Germany, where the 9/11 Description was hatched The CIA's job is to collect facts and let the White House, the Pentagon, and the State Department make national security policy. But, as Scarborough conclusively demonstrates, an agency that is supposed to be scrupulously nonpartisan has become increasingly political–during a time of war–against America's elected commander in chief.
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Love and Sex with Robots: The Evolution of Human-Robot Relationships

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David Levy, "Love and Sex with Robots: The Evolution of Human-Robot Relationships"
2008 | ISBN-10: 0061359807, 0061359750 | 352 pages | PDF, EPUB, MOBI | 5 MB

Love and Sex with Robots: The Evolution of Human-Robot Relationships
Love, marriage, and sex with robots? Not in a million years? Maybe a whole lot sooner!

A leading expert in artificial intelligence, David Levy argues that the entities we once deemed cold and mechanical will soon become the objects of real companionship and human desire. He shows how automata have evolved and how human interactions with technology have changed over the years. Levy explores many aspects of human relationships-the reasons we fall in love, why we form emotional attachments to animals and virtual pets, and why these same attachments could extend to love for robots. Levy also examines how society's ideas about what constitutes normal sex have changed-and will continue to change-as sexual technology becomes increasingly sophisticated.

Shocking, eye-opening, provocative, and utterly convincing, Love and Sex with Robots is compelling reading for anyone with an open mind.
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Three Critics of the Enlightenment: Vico, Hamann, Herder

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Three Critics of the Enlightenment: Vico, Hamann, Herder by Isaiah Berlin
English | 2013 | ISBN: 0691157650 | 576 pages | PDF | 6,8 MB

Three Critics of the Enlightenment: Vico, Hamann, Herder
Isaiah Berlin was deeply admired during his life, but his full contribution was perhaps underestimated because of his preference for the long essay form. The efforts of Henry Hardy to edit Berlin's work and reintroduce it to a broad, eager readership have gone far to remedy this. Now, Princeton is pleased to return to print, under one cover, Berlin's essays on these celebrated and captivating intellectual portraits: Vico, Hamann, and Herder. These essays on three relatively uncelebrated thinkers are not marginal ruminations, but rather among Berlin's most important studies in the history of ideas. They are integral to his central project: the critical recovery of the ideas of the Counter-Enlightenment and the explanation of its appeal and consequences–both positive and (often) tragic.

Giambattista Vico was the anachronistic and impoverished Neapolitan philosopher sometimes credited with founding the human sciences. He opposed Enlightenment methods as cold and fallacious. J. G. Hamann was a pious, cranky dilettante in a peripheral German city. But he was brilliant enough to gain the audience of Kant, Goethe, and Moses Mendelssohn. In Hamann's chaotic and long-ignored writings, Berlin finds the first strong attack on Enlightenment rationalism and a wholly original source of the coming swell of romanticism. Johann Gottfried Herder, the progenitor of populism and European nationalism, rejected universalism and rationalism but championed cultural pluralism.

Individually, these fascinating intellectual biographies reveal Berlin's own great intelligence, learning, and generosity, as well as the passionate genius of his subjects. Together, they constitute an arresting interpretation of romanticism's precursors. In Hamann's railings and the more considered writings of Vico and Herder, Berlin finds critics of the Enlightenment worthy of our careful attention. But he identifies much that is misguided in their rejection of universal values, rationalism, and science. With his customary emphasis on the frightening power of ideas, Berlin traces much of the next centuries' irrationalism and suffering to the historicism and particularism they advocated. What Berlin has to say about these long-dead thinkers–in appreciation and dissent–is remarkably timely in a day when Enlightenment beliefs are being challenged not just by academics but by politicians and by powerful nationalist and fundamentalist movements.

The study of J. G. Hamann was originally published under the title The Magus of the North: J. G. Hamann and the Origins of Modern Irrationalism. The essays on Vico and Herder were originally published as Vico and Herder: Two Studies in the History of Ideas. Both are out of print.
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TTC How We Learn (Audiobook)

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TTC How We Learn (Audiobook)
English | MP3 128 kbps | 24 Lectures | 361 MB
Learning is a lifelong adventure. It starts in your mother's womb, accelerates to high speed in infancy and childhood, and continues through every age, whether you're actively engaged in mastering a new skill, intuitively discovering an unfamiliar place, or just sleeping, which is fundamental to helping you consolidate and hold on to what you've learned. You are truly born to learn around the clock.

TTC How We Learn (Audiobook)
But few of us know how we learn, which is the key to learning and studying more effectively. For example, you may be surprised by the following:

People tend to misjudge what they have learned well, what they don't yet know, and what they do and do not need to practice.
Moments of confusion, frustration, uncertainty, and lack of confidence are part of the process of acquiring new skills and new knowledge.
Humans and animals explore their worlds for the sake of learning, regardless of rewards and punishment connected with success.
You can teach an old dog new tricks. In fact, older learners have the benefit of prior knowledge and critical skills—two advantages in learning.
Shedding light on what's going on when we learn and dispelling common myths about the subject, How We Learn introduces you to this practical and accessible science in 24 half-hour lectures presented by Professor Monisha Pasupathi of the University of Utah, an award-winning psychology teacher and expert on how people of all ages learn.

A Course about You

Customers of The Great Courses are already devoted to lifelong learning and may be surprised at how complicated the process of learning is. We have a single word for it—learn—but it occurs in a fascinating variety of ways, which Professor Pasupathi recounts in detail. She describes a wide range of experiments that may strike a familiar chord as you recognize something about yourself or others:

scripts: We have trouble recalling specific events until we have first learned scripts for those events. Young children are prodigious learners of scripts, but so are first-time parents, college freshmen, foreign travelers, and new employees.
Variable ratio reinforcement: Children whining for candy are usually refused, but the few occasions when parents give in encourage maximal display of the behavior. The same principle is behind the success of slot machines and other unpredictable rewards.
Storytelling: Telling stories is fundamentally an act of learning about ourselves. The way we recount experiences, usually shortly after the event, has lasting effects on the way we remember those experiences and what we learn from them.
Sleeper effect: Have you ever heard something from an unreliable source and later found yourself believing it? Over time, we tend to remember information but forget the source. Paradoxically, this effect is stronger when the source is less credible.
Dr. Pasupathi's many examples cover the modern history of research on learning—from behaviorist theory in the early 20th century to the most recent debates about whether IQ can be separated from achievement, or whether a spectrum of different learning styles and multiple intelligences really exist.

What You Will Learn

You start by examining 10 myths about learning. These can get in the way of making the fullest use of the extraordinary capacity for learning and include widespread beliefs, such as that college-educated people already know how to maximize learning or that a person must be interested in a subject in order to learn it.

Professor Pasupathi then covers mistaken theories of learning, such as that lab animals and humans learn in the same way or that the brain is a tabula rasa, a blank slate that can absorb information without preparation. Babies might seem to be a counterexample, showing that you can learn from scratch. However, you examine what newborns must know at birth in order for them to learn so much, so quickly.

Next you explore in depth how humans master different tasks, from learning a native language or a second language, to becoming adept at a sport or a musical instrument, to learning a new city or a problem-solving strategy, to grasping the distinctive style of thinking required in mathematics and science. Then you look inside the learning process itself, where many factors come into play, including what is being learned and the context, along with the emotions, motivations, and goals of the learner. You close by considering individual differences. Some people seem to learn without effort. How do they do it?

Tips on Learning

Along the way, Professor Pasupathi offers frequent advice on how to excel in many different learning situations:

Mastering material: Testing yourself is a very effective strategy for mastering difficult material. Try taking a blank sheet of paper and writing down everything you can recall about the subject. Then go back and review the material. Next, try another blank sheet of paper.
Second-language learning: Becoming fluent in a second language in adulthood is difficult because your brain is tuned to your native language and misses important clues in the new language. To overcome this obstacle, immerse yourself among native speakers of the new language.
Motivating a child: When trying to motivate a schoolchild to learn, avoid controlling language, create opportunities to give the child a sense of choice, and be careful about excessive praise and other forms of rewards, which can actually undermine learning.
Maintaining a learning edge: Middle-aged and older adults can preserve their learning aptitude by exercising to maintain cardiovascular health, staying mentally active, and periodically trying a new challenge, such as learning to draw or studying new dance steps.
Adventures in Learning

Winner of prestigious teaching awards from her university's chapter of Psi Chi, the National Honor Society in Psychology, Dr. Pasupathi brings today's exciting field of learning research alive. Her descriptions of ongoing work in her field, in which she is a prominent participant, are vivid and insightful, allowing you to put yourself into a given experiment and ask, "How would I react under these circumstances? What does this tell me about my own approach to learning?"

By the time How We Learn ends, you will appreciate the incredible breadth of what we learn in our lifetimes, understand the commonality and diversity of human learning experiences, and come away with strategies for enhancing your own adventures in learning.

"Learning is a human birthright," says Professor Pasupathi. "Everything about us is built for lifelong learning—from our unusually long childhood and our large prefrontal cortex to our interest in novelty and challenge." And she finds reason for optimism about the future of humanity due to our almost miraculous capacity to learn.

About Your Professor

Dr. Monisha Pasupathi is Associate Professor of Psychology at the University of Utah. She holds a Ph.D. in Psychology from Stanford University. She joined the faculty at Utah in 1999 after completing a postdoctoral fellowship at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Germany.

Professor Pasupathi has been honored multiple times for her teaching. She was named Best Psychology Professor by her university's chapter of Psi Chi, the National Honor Society in Psychology. Psi Chi also awarded her the Outstanding Educator Award and Favorite Professor Award.

Professor Pasupathi's research focuses on how people of all ages learn from their experiences, particularly through storytelling. She is coeditor of Narrative Development in Adolescence: Creating the Storied Self, and her work has been published widely in scholarly journals.

Directory of TTC Teaching Company – How We Learn 2012

01 Myths about Learning.mp3
02 Why No Single Learning Theory Works.mp3
03 Learning as Information Processing.mp3
04 Creating Representations.mp3
05 Categories, Rules, and scripts.mp3
06 What Babies Know.mp3
07 Learning Your Native Tongue.mp3
08 Learning a Second Language.mp3
09 Learning How to Move.mp3
10 Learning Our Way Around.mp3
11 Learning to Tell Stories.mp3
12 Learning Approaches in Math and Science.mp3
13 Learning as Theory Testing.mp3
14 Integrating Different Domains of Learning.mp3
15 Cognitive Constraints on Learning.mp3
16 Choosing Learning Strategies.mp3
17 Source Knowledge and Learning.mp3
18 The Role of Emotion in Learning.mp3
19 Cultivating a Desire to Learn.mp3
20 Intelligence and Learning.mp3
21 Are Learning Styles Real.mp3
22 Different People, Different Interests.mp3
23 Learning across the Lifespan.mp3
24 Making the Most of How We Learn.mp3
How We Learn.txt

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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock
English | 2006 | ISBN: 0691128715, 0691123020 | 352 pages | EPUB | 5 MB

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox–the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events–is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits–the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.

Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
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