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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock
English | 2006 | ISBN: 0691128715, 0691123020 | 352 pages | EPUB | 5 MB

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox–the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events–is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits–the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.

Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
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“Advances in Evolutionary Algorithms” ed. by Witold Kosinski

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"Advances in Evolutionary Algorithms" ed. by Witold Kosinski
InTeOpP | 2008 | ISBN: 9537619117 9789537619114 | 4786 pages | PDF | 47 MB
Aim of the book is to present recent improvements, innovative ideas and concepts in a part of a huge Evolutionary Algorithms field.

“Advances in Evolutionary Algorithms” ed. by Witold Kosinski
With the recent trends towards massive data sets and significant computational power, combined with evolutionary algorithmic advances evolutionary computation is becoming much more relevant to practice.

Contents
Preface
Part I: Foundations and New Methods
1 Limit Properties of Evolutionary Algorithms
2 Evolutionary Systems Identification: New Algorithmic Concepts and Applications
3 FPBIL: A Parameter-free Evolutionary Algorithm
Part II: Hybrid and Harmony Search
5 An Adaptive Evolutionary Algorithm Combining Evolution Strategy and Genetic Algorithm (Application of Fuzzy Power System Stabilizer)
6 A Simple Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization
7 Pxecent Advances in Harmony Search
A Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm and its Application to Parameter Identification of Rolling Elements Bearings
9 Domain Decomposition Evolutionary Algorithm for Multi-Modal Function Optimization
Part III: Dynamic Environment and Multi-Objective Optimization
10 Evolutionary Algorithms with Dissortative Mating on Static and Dynamic Environments
11 Adapting Genetic Algorithms for Combinatorial Optimization Problems in Dynamic Environments
12 Agent-Based Co-Evolutionary Techniques for Solving Multi-Objective Optimization Problems
13 Evolutionary Multi-Objective PxObust Optimization
14 Improving InterpretabiIity of Fuzzy Models Using Multi-Objective Neuro-Evolutionary Algorithms
15 Multi-objective Uniform-divers ity Genetic Algorithm (MUG A)
16 EA-based Problem Solving Environment over the GRID
Part IV: Applications
17 Evolutionary Methods for Learning Bayesian Network Structures
18 Design of Phased Antenna Arrays using Evolutionary Optimization Techniques
19 Design of an Efficient Genetic Algorithm to Solve the Industrial Car Sequencing Problem
20 Symbiotic Evolution Genetic Algorithms for Reinforcement Fuzzy Systems Design
21 Evolutionary Computation Applied to Urban Traffic Optimization
22 Evolutionary Algorithms in Decision Tree Induction
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King, Priest, and Prophet: A Trinitarian Theology of Atonement

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Robert J. Sherman, "King, Priest, and Prophet: A Trinitarian Theology of Atonement"
English | ISBN: 0567025608 | 2004 | 304 pages | PDF | 43 MB

King, Priest, and Prophet: A Trinitarian Theology of Atonement
The doctrines of the atonement and the Trinity are central not only to the Christian faith but also to Christian systematic theology. Over the last decade or so, one or another theological interpretation of either of these doctrines has assumed pride of place among theologians. Before Robert Sherman, though, no theologian has ever dared to read the atonement in light of the Trinity. Most of the time atonement theories simply focus on the redeeming work of Jesus Christ, without any reference to Christ's relationship to the Father and the Spirit of the Trinity.

But, as Sherman argues, Christ's atoning work is diverse and cannot be limited to one who ransoms our sins or to one who has victory over our sins (although in Sherman's view Christ's atoning work includes these tasks and more). He offers here a constructive theological proposal that connects Trinity with the rubrics of prophet, priest, and king to help explain Christ's atoning work. One can understand adequately neither Christ's multifaceted reconciliation of a complex humanity to God nor that reconciliations fundamental unity as God's gracious act apart form the Trinity. Without this framework, one will likely stress one person of the Trinity, one aspect of God's reconciling work, and/or one understanding of the human predicament to the exclusion of others and the detriment of theology, both systematic and pastoral. Sherman's constructive theological proposal suggests that we should recognize a certain correspondence and mutual support between the three persons of the Trinity, the three offices of Christ (king, prophet, priest), and the three commonly recognized models of his atoning work (Christus victor, vicarious sacrifice, moral exemplar). Sherman's book offers a well-nuanced and well-grounded constructive theology of Trinitarian atonement and is a significant addition to the Theology for the Twenty-First Century Series.

Robert J. Sherman is Professor of Christian Theology at Bangor Theological Seminary in Maine. His work has appeared in such publications as the Scottish Journal of Theology, the International Journal of Systematic Theology, and The Journal of Religion.
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Implementing Sustainability: The New Zealand Experience

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Implementing Sustainability: The New Zealand Experience (RTPI Library Series) by Caroline L. Miller
English | 2011-02-03 | ISBN: 0415495504, 0415495512 | PDF | 248 pages | 7,6 MB

Implementing Sustainability: The New Zealand Experience
New Zealand's Resource Management Act (RMA) was hailed as a radical new approach to planning that would both achieve better environmental outcomes and benefit developers by working rapidly and more efficiently.

This book examines the lessons that can be learned by planning practitioners across the world. It focuses on the realities of implementing the RMA for the planning profession, the community and the political system within which planning must always operate.
Offering a practitioner's insight, the book looks at those strategies and techniques that have proved successful, and spells out what can be applied to the planning systems of other countries.
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Implementing Sustainability: The New Zealand Experience

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Implementing Sustainability: The New Zealand Experience (RTPI Library Series) by Caroline L. Miller
English | 2011-02-03 | ISBN: 0415495504, 0415495512 | PDF | 248 pages | 7,6 MB

Implementing Sustainability: The New Zealand Experience
New Zealand's Resource Management Act (RMA) was hailed as a radical new approach to planning that would both achieve better environmental outcomes and benefit developers by working rapidly and more efficiently.

This book examines the lessons that can be learned by planning practitioners across the world. It focuses on the realities of implementing the RMA for the planning profession, the community and the political system within which planning must always operate.
Offering a practitioner's insight, the book looks at those strategies and techniques that have proved successful, and spells out what can be applied to the planning systems of other countries.
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Auditor’s Guide to Information Systems Auditing

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Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing by Richard E. Cascarino
English | Mar 23, 2007 | ISBN: 0470009896 | 512 Pages | PDF | 1 MB

Praise for Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing.

Auditor’s Guide to Information Systems Auditing
"Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing is the most comprehensive book about auditing that I have ever seen. There is something in this book for everyone. New auditors will find this book to be their bible-reading it will enable them to learn what the role of auditors really is and will convey to them what they must know, understand, and look for when performing audits. For experiencedauditors, this book will serve as a reality check to determine whether they are examining the right issues and whether they are being sufficiently comprehensive in their focus. Richard Cascarino has done a superb job."
-E. Eugene Schultz, PhD, CISSP, CISM Chief Technology Officer and Chief Information Security Officer, High Tower Software

A step-by-step guide tosuccessful implementation and control of information systems

More and more, auditors are being called upon to assess the risks and evaluate the controls over computer information systems in all types of organizations. However, many auditors are unfamiliar with the techniques they need to know to efficiently and effectively determine whether information systems are adequately protected. Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing presents an easy, practical guide for auditors that can be applied to all computing environments.

As networks and enterprise resource planning systems bring resources together, and as increasing privacy violations threaten more organization, information systems integrity becomes more important than ever. With a complimentary student'sversion of the IDEA Data Analysis Software CD, Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing empowers auditors to effectively gauge the adequacy and effectiveness of information systems controls.
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Auditor’s Guide to Information Systems Auditing

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Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing by Richard E. Cascarino
English | Mar 23, 2007 | ISBN: 0470009896 | 512 Pages | PDF | 1 MB

Praise for Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing.

Auditor’s Guide to Information Systems Auditing
"Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing is the most comprehensive book about auditing that I have ever seen. There is something in this book for everyone. New auditors will find this book to be their bible-reading it will enable them to learn what the role of auditors really is and will convey to them what they must know, understand, and look for when performing audits. For experiencedauditors, this book will serve as a reality check to determine whether they are examining the right issues and whether they are being sufficiently comprehensive in their focus. Richard Cascarino has done a superb job."
-E. Eugene Schultz, PhD, CISSP, CISM Chief Technology Officer and Chief Information Security Officer, High Tower Software

A step-by-step guide tosuccessful implementation and control of information systems

More and more, auditors are being called upon to assess the risks and evaluate the controls over computer information systems in all types of organizations. However, many auditors are unfamiliar with the techniques they need to know to efficiently and effectively determine whether information systems are adequately protected. Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing presents an easy, practical guide for auditors that can be applied to all computing environments.

As networks and enterprise resource planning systems bring resources together, and as increasing privacy violations threaten more organization, information systems integrity becomes more important than ever. With a complimentary student'sversion of the IDEA Data Analysis Software CD, Auditor's Guide to Information Systems Auditing empowers auditors to effectively gauge the adequacy and effectiveness of information systems controls.
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The Analysis of Irregular Shaped Structures Diaphragms and Shear Walls

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The Analysis of Irregular Shaped Structures Diaphragms and Shear Walls by R. Terry Malone, Robert Rice
2011 | ISBN: 007176383X | English | 576 pages | PDF | 48 MB

The Analysis of Irregular Shaped Structures Diaphragms and Shear Walls
A Complete Guide to Solving Lateral Load Path Problems

The Analysis of Irregular Shaped Structures: Diaphragms and Shear Walls explains how to calculate the forces to be transferred across multiple discontinuities and reflect the design requirements on construction documents. Step-by-step examples offer progressive coverage, from basic to very advanced illustrations of load paths in complicated structures. The book is based on the 2009 International Building Code, ASCE/SEI 7-05, the 2005 Edition of the National Design Specification for Wood Construction, and the 2008 Edition of the Special Design Provisions for Wind and Seismic (SDPWS-08).

COVERAGE INCLUDES:

Code sections and analysis
Diaphragm basics
Diaphragms with end horizontal offsets
Diaphragms with intermediate offsets
Diaphragms with openings
Open front and cantilever diaphragms
Diaphragms with vertical offsets
Complex diaphragms with combined openings and offsets
Standard shear walls
Shear walls with openings
Discontinous shear walls
Horizontally offset shear walls
The portal frame
Rigid moment-resisting frame walls–the frame method of analysis
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D’Encre et de Sang HS – Scnario et Aquarelles

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D'Encre et de Sang HS – Scénario et Aquarelles
French | CBR | 90 pages | 100 MB

D’Encre et de Sang HS – Scnario et Aquarelles
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D’Encre et de Sang HS – Scnario et Aquarelles

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D'Encre et de Sang HS – Scénario et Aquarelles
French | CBR | 90 pages | 100 MB

D’Encre et de Sang HS – Scnario et Aquarelles
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